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    一些电脑可能会在世纪交接时失灵，但科技分析员认为，情况肯定
不会如一些末世预言者所说的那么糟。

    分析员预测，在1月的首两个星期里，最多是有10%的电脑会发生与
千年虫有关的故障。

    美国、英国、澳洲、加拿大、瑞典和荷兰在预防千年虫方面应是最
先进的，而俄罗斯、其他前苏联成员国、印度、巴基斯坦、阿富汗和非
洲中部和西部的部分地区则是防范工作最为落后的。

    商业科技顾问公司GartnerGroup预测，全球花在防范千年虫方面大
约是3000亿美元到6000亿美元之间。一般来说，一家公司从它的资讯科
技预算中拨出大约10%来防虫。

    GartnerGroup千年虫研究部副总裁奥特勒说，全球的公司估计总共
收到大约三万个跟千年虫有关的威胁，但大部分都不是真的。“如果有
20、50或100个病毒真的出现了，那将是个相当大的问题。”

    他认为，在1月3日和4日或许一些商业软件会出问题，但90%应在三
天内就可解决。

    他说：“要感谢成千上万电脑专业人员的努力，我们预测来临的周
末将会平安无事，虽然一些孤立的问题会浮现。”

(Zaobao.com 节译)

SOME computers may go down around the world when the calendar changes from 1999 to 2000, but any glitches will be nothing like the catastrophes some doomsayers have predicted, technology analysts said on Tuesday.

They estimate fewer than 10 per cent of all Y2K-related failures will occur during the first two weeks of January, with 55 per cent of them spread throughout the whole coming year.

The US, Britain, Australia, Canada, Sweden and the Netherlands are probably the most advanced when it comes to Y2K computer compliance, while the countries lagging behind are Russia, other former Soviet states, India, Pakistan and the Afghanistan region, and parts of central and western Africa, they told reporters on a conference call.

Year 2000 or Y2K compliance refers to getting rid of the millennium bug, a flaw in existing computers whose outdated software prevents them from distinguishing between the years 2000 and 1900.

"We estimate only a small percentage of computer failures will be visible to the general public and they will be relatively minor," said Lou Marcoccio, a research director at GartnerGroup Inc, a business technology adviser.

"It will be an event, but not a catastrophe," said Matthew Hotle, GartnerGroup's Year 2000 Research vice-president. "Still, CEOs (chief executive officers) and government officials must bring their beepers and phones with them on New Year's eve to stay in touch with their technology teams as they pass through the Year 2000 boundary." GartnerGroup predicts that addressing the Year 2000 date change could cost industries and governments some US$300 billion (S$499.8 billion) to US$600 billion worldwide, out of a total of US$2 trillion spent worldwide on information technology. It said the majority of large organisations have spent at least 10 per cent of their IT budgets in 1998 and 1999 on Y2K remediation and testing.

Nevertheless, Mr Hotle said most companies and organisations would not be involved in "mission-critical" activities on the stroke of midnight tomorrow as there was still the danger of "cyber-hacking or terrorism". Mr Marcoccio said there had been an estimated 30,000 Y2K-related threats against companies worldwide. "But how many are real? Of course, if we had 20 or 50 or 100 (viruses) in a couple of days, that would be a considerable problem.

"With regards to hackers or criminal activity, at least one company might have considerable losses, but large companies are taking considerable (security) measures, especially banks," he said.

"Around Jan 1, I don't believe there will be a major catastrophe, but there could be minor infrastructure problems in the developed countries," said Mr Hotle. He said these could be business software failures on Jan 3 or 4, but added that 90 per cent of these problems would be solved within three days. Mr Marcoccio said the US government had done "an exceptional job overall" on computer compliance, and the risk of glitches at state government level and in public utilities was minor.

In most of the industrialised world, Mr Marcoccio said, there was "not really a potential risk" of major disruptions, and even in the countries he cited, the risks were significantly lower even though they may lag in Y2K computer compliance. "Thanks to the work of tens of thousands of computer professionals who have made billions of lines of code ready for the Year 2000, we're forecasting a relatively quiet weekend with isolated problems," said Mr Hotle. -- Reuters